Well you know how it is, it’s the last hour of your work day and you’re just about to finish whatever project you’re working on and BAM! Another pile of paperwork large enough to crush a vole thuds into your in-tray with a note attached saying “today please!”
So I was putting the finishing touches to the top five of 2021, which is a little late this year, apologies, and as the calendar crept into February, I regarded the Oscars with the occasional suspicious glance, like one would the Yellowstone Caldera: surprised yet relieved nothing’s come out yet but increasingly all the more concerned it’ll happen any day. And then, right as I'm closing in on the finished draft....eruption!
On 8th February as well, with a ceremony on 27th March of all times; that’s just shy of a two month window! Man, covid’s really done a lasting number on film schedules, huh.
Anyway, as previously mentioned, I was in the middle of another post, so I’m going to attempt to keep things a little brisker this year. No 5000 word multi-category monoliths like last time. So as that’s the case, let’s stop waffling and get to the cream of the ceremony. Or maybe I should go have pudding first...
Best Picture
Belfast
‘...Irish power…’
To start us off is Belfast, the new Kenneth Branagh period piece based on his childhood experiences at the turn of the seventies in the titular Northern Irish capital, at the genesis of what would become known as The Troubles. For the most part, people seem to have really taken to Belfast, particularly those who may have grown up during that era. On the other hand, I have heard some sniffier reviews from people suggesting it’s a nostalgic navel-gaze that doesn’t comment on the situation as much as it thinks it does.
But I've not seen it yet, so I couldn’t possibly say. My mum liked it though. Belfast went straight to my “to do when I’m bored one evening” list when it came out, but now it's snagged itself a nomination, I’ll upgrade its status a bit and give it a look in time for the results ceremony.
Will it win Best Picture? Maybe. My gut instinct is that it's one of the most likely candidates: it’s a period piece set at the time when most Academy voters were growing up, it’s got a lot of big names in it, good-ol’ Chuckles Branagh is directing, and there’s stuff going on politically in the background that aids its dramatic edge. This does rely, however, on an elderly American audience understanding and caring about Northern Irish politics, which I’m not saying they necessarily don’t, but if there were going to be a hangup...
CODA
‘...fish power…’
I do kind of remember this film coming out last year, at an unusually sensible time for once, and yet, when the nominations were announced I was convinced I’d never heard of this film until I IMDb’d it, which might be a first for me since I started reviewing the Oscars. I also now remember people raving about CODA for all of a day before it seemingly vanished off the face of the Earth. I guess that’s what happens when you’re an Apple TV exclusive.
At any rate, I’ve given CODA a watch and you know what, it really surprised me. The plot sounds like your typical cliché comfort movie: Ruby, the only hearing child in a deaf family, is torn between her dream of becoming a singer and her commitments and love for her family, who need her to help them with their fishing business. Throw in the classic “father doesn’t understand daughter’s passion” device (although admittedly in a very literal sense here) along with Standard Teen Romance Subplot B, and you’ve got a film that on paper should be relegated to only being viewed with a tub of ice cream and a temperature.
And yet, something about CODA really clicked for me, as it did for a lot of people it seems. It might just be as simple as an exceptionally good execution of that standard comfort movie format, but there definitely feels like something more going on here. It might be the performances, of which Eugenio Derbez as music teacher Mr. V is the highlight, or maybe the deaf representation that feels motivated by genuine intent for once rather than insincere box-ticking, feeling fresh and engaging as a result.
It’s certainly not perfect: there’s a sequence involving a fishing boat inspector that felt particularly contrived, born out of uncharacteristic idiocy and there only to drive some late second act conflict, yet ultimately going nowhere particularly. It also feels like most of the characters besides Ruby don’t get as much character development as I feel they should, especially her love interest, who feels very much like the default stock character that comes bundled with the aforementioned Standard Teen Romance Subplot B kit. But these are ultimately nitpicks on an otherwise very solid and enjoyable story.
In terms of Oscars, it could go either way. On the one hand it is a genuinely good crowd pleaser with broad appeal, a happy ending, and even that representation that the Academy loves to show off.
On the other hand, it’s also an Apple TV exclusive. And that’s not just me being snarky: in previous years we’ve seen Academy members, most notably Steven Spielberg, voice a certain sniffiness towards streaming service films, claiming they are not equal to traditional theatrical releases and shouldn’t be Oscar eligible.
Obviously, this is horseshit.
But this argument first started showing up in 2019 when Roma was one of the front runners for Best Picture, and while it’s impossible to say if the prejudice against streaming cost it the win, Netflix has had at least one film in the nominations every year since Roma’s defeat, and has still yet to triumph.
So being an Apple TV exclusive, it’s possible CODA might face the same uphill battle. The other thing that might hinder CODA is it is by far the earliest release of the nominations, and while this is something I’m usually very happy for, it does give the film a disadvantage in terms or recency bias, something the Academy is likely to succumb to. This is the only film here that came out long enough ago to be realistically forgotten about (at least if my own experience is anything to go by) and combined with the fact that until now, I hadn't heard anyone talk about this film since it came out, suggests maybe it doesn’t have the staying power it needs to win over the voters.
Don't Look Up
‘...idiot power…’
Speaking of streaming films, Adam Mckay’s Netflix-exclusive Don’t Look Up has managed to snag a nomination somehow.
DiCaprio and J-Law (the lesser known PCM audio format) star as two scientists who discover a meteorite large enough to cause an extinction-level event hurtling straight for Earth. They attempt to warn the world, only for the media, government and public to at first not care about or understand the threat, before evolving it into a point of political contention and opportunistic capitalism. It’s ended up being a somewhat divisive film, and not necessarily based on its audience’s political views.
Personally, I was kind of lukewarm to the whole thing. It all felt a bit too surface level and thinly spread; there’s so many different angles and elements of the subject matter to tackle that Mckay tries to just scattershot as much of it as possible but giving none of the elements enough time to really develop satirically. The end result is a film that points out a lot of things without really investigating any of them.
“Hey, isn’t it crazy that people care more about celebrity gossip than life-threatening news?”
“Yes, Don’t Look Up. The Simpsons was parodying that back in the 90s.”
“But isn’t it…isn’t it just CRAZY?”
The other problem is the classic case of reality being stranger than fiction: the American response to the COVID-19 pandemic, of which this film is most directly pointing to, is an intricate web of ludicrous bullshit that you absolutely could not make up, because your editor would tell you to redraft and make it more realistic. There’s just nothing really in this film that feels surprising or shocking compared to what’s actually happened in the last few years, and combined with the lack of depth discussed above, the overall experience is a film that doesn’t really say or stir much of anything.
Is it at least funny? Ehh, sort of. There’s occasional glimmers of humour, but a lot of it falls flat in that boomer-y kind of way (why is it so difficult to understand how memes work?!). It is an entertaining film, however: the performances are good, there’s the occasional good line and overall it’s better than I thought it would be, in that it’s merely fine rather than cringe-inducingly terrible.
But I have no idea why it’s sitting here with an Oscar nomination. Being (or attempting to be) a provocative comedy, and one that takes aim at politicians and the media in a very politically charged time, it seems a little outside the Academy’s comfort zone. It’s also, as above, not particularly good, and it’s a Netflix-exclusive film, so overall not a lot of things going for it. About the only really Oscar-y thing about it is Adam Mckay himself, who’s previous films Vice and The Big Short were nominated for Best Picture in their respective years, although none of them won. If it weren’t for his name, I wager this film wouldn’t be on this shortlist (and I’d further wager it might be a bit better of a film). But if he didn’t win Oscars for his previous efforts, this certainly ain’t the film that’s going to change that.
The only other theory I really have is this is more of a political statement by the Academy rather than a serious contender, like what happened with Black Panther. Don’t Look Up has been a very popular film, shooting into the ranks of Netflix’s all-time most watched, and with its political pertinence, maybe this is the Academy’s way of piggybacking on that by shouting “hey kids, we’re hip and relevant! We, too, hate… *checks cue card* …people being fucking idiots.”
Drive My Car
‘...car power…’
Haven’t seen it, and frankly wasn’t expecting it here. I mean, how often do three-hour-long Japanese arthouse films show up in the Academy awards of all things? Not very often it would seem, since as I understand this is the first Japanese film to receive a Best Picture nomination, and with Parasite, is probably one of few to receive both a Best Picture and Best International Feature nomination.
Along with its other nominations for direction and original screenplay, clearly something about this film has gotten people excited. Either that or the producers have really gone all in on the Oscar campaign for some reason; a lot of dinners being organised, if you catch my drift.
Not sure to what end though: I mean it’s only the Oscars. A point to prove, perhaps? Or maybe just trying by any means necessary to get the film a sodding half-decent western release. Why has the one cinema vaguely near me that was showing Drive My Car stopped doing so after the film got nominated?! Is John David Washington in charge of this release schedule?
Anyway, I can't see it winning. Knowing the academy voters (which of course I do, personally, on a very intimate level), I can very easily see all of them skipping this film due to an inability to be arsed, and it’s probably fair to say it’s the least accessible film on this list for a general American audience. Besides, films like this don't generally hang around in the mainstream sphere, they tend to do much better as cult hits for Criterion snobs to fawn over on Letterboxd.
“Nick, what’s that you’re importing from Barnes and Noble?”
“NOTHING!”
Dune
‘...desert power…’
I'm not gonna review Dune here, because I’ve got plans for it someplace else, but suffice to say I absolutely loved it and it is hands down my favourite of the nominated films.
But in terms of the Oscars, this is a curious pick. When it comes to Best Picture, Parasite is probably the only instance in recent memory of the Academy choosing the legit best film of the year as the Best Picture winner, and it’s even rarer when said film is a genre film, namely a high-concept science fiction epic. Normally films like Dune get thrown a couple of technical nominations like VFX and sound and then get shunted to one side, much like Villeneuve’s previous film did, the fantastic Blade Runner 2049, but this year the Academy has really rolled out the red carpet for Dune with a mind-boggling ten nominations. I mean, bravo to it: it’s totally deserving of the praise, but it's rare for the Academy to actually acknowledge that.
The last comparable film to this was Mad Max: Fury Road, which was also a big, high-concept sci-fi blockbuster and also received ten Oscar nominations, and for almost the exact same array of categories. So a pretty good comparison really. Fury Road swept the technicals, winning six Oscars, but did not win Best Picture, losing to Spotlight, and I expect the same thing to happen to Dune. Except the losing to Spotlight bit, that would be a bit of a stretch.
The Academy just does not like genre films, and despite how popular and critically lauded Dune was, I cannot see the Academy changing their stupid ways. The best hope Dune has it that it’s adapted from a novel that most Academy members are probably old enough to have grown up with, and many of them probably have a sense of nostalgia for both the book and the strange ‘82 David Lynch adaptation, and maybe that investment might be enough to thaw their withered old hearts and give Dune the award it really deserves.
King Richard
‘...tennis power…’
It's funny, when King Richard came out, someone commented that it would probably do quite well at the Oscars, and I remember thinking “fuck, I forgot the Oscars existed”. Turns out they were right, though. Sort of. I mean, it’s got six nominations, sure, but is it going to win any of them?
Probably the baitiest film of the year, adopting the classic paint-by-numbers biopic format and featuring big name actor Will Smith in a Big Serious™ central performance as a troubled real life figure who is in some way responsible for greatness. And if we are following Oscar Bait Bingo here, you can also probably safely tick off “vague glimmer of a current political topic”, “big emotional moment to trick people into thinking they’re more invested than they really are” and “overall whiff of insincerity”.
But look, this is just based on the trailer and gut instinct: I’ve not seen the film. Maybe it’s fine. I think the reviews have been broadly positive, if a little underwhelmed, and the Williams sisters have executive producer credits, which lends the film a certain authentic endorsement.
Still, I don’t think it will win much, certainly not Best Picture, and I’m probably not going to catch this one anyway. Sports dramas rarely do anything for me if they’re not focused on Formula 1 rivalries, and not only did the trailer have my eyes glazing over, but none of the reactions I’ve seen to this film have been strong enough to suggest anyone really cares, especially compared to other films on this list.
Licorice Pizza
‘...nostalgic power…’
I went to see Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film more out of a sense of duty as a film critic than out of personal interest. PTA and I have never quite seen eye to eye, and as is sometimes the way with these kinds of films, the overwhelmingly glowing reviews left me more with a sense of dread than excitement.
Some of Licorice Pizza's detractors have said it’s the least Anderson-y film PTA has made so far, but all things considered, that might actually be why I liked it so much. Licorice Pizza is essentially PTA’s version of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, in that it’s a nostalgic navel-gaze into the Los Angeles of the director’s youth, foregoing a strict plot in favour of a more meandering series of scenarios involving the same core characters, just kinda hanging out in the environment and going on misadventures.
And what's weird is I hated this in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and yet here I really kinda vibed with it. So what gives? For one thing, while both films don’t have an overarching plot as such, Licorice Pizza still has plenty of stuff going on. The story follows teenage star Gary Valentine over the course of a summer as he tries to make it big with a series of ambitious businesses and get-rich-quick schemes, all the while befriending Alana, a school photographer who becomes helplessly fascinated by him. What this means for the plot is we have a narrative backbone in the form of the burgeoning relationship between Gary and Alana that gives the film direction, while the story plays out more like a series of semi-self contained sequences, focusing on Gary’s schemes and the situations they land him and Alana in.
What this also means is that plot is more of a secondary consideration in favour of the characters and their relationships, which is where Licorice Pizza really shines. Alana and Gary are incredibly engaging, charismatic and just fun to watch, and their chemistry is what really pulls the film together, as problematic as it might be.
And it is, don’t get me wrong. The biggest problem with Licorice Pizza, and the one that I see most often cited by people who didn’t like it, is the age difference between Alana, 25, and Gary, 15. Yeah… It’s very difficult to justify the age gap, and while I’ve read a couple of different ideas on the subject, some of which offer quite insightful analyses of the film that I hadn’t initially considered, I completely understand people who are put off by it, and I personally think not much would have been lost from the story by closing the age gap a little bit. It’s a deeply complex and delicate discussion and one that I really don’t have time to explore here (and believe me, I tried), especially when others more eloquent than I have already written on the subject.
But in the end, I found the charm of Licorice Pizza overshadowed its stickier elements, and it evoked a sense of youthful bliss and optimism that fit the nostalgic setting way better than whatever Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was trying to do. This is easily my next favourite of the Best Picture candidates after Dune, and an early front runner for my favourite film of 2022, but what about the Academy?
Well, it’s a period piece set in a time and place that Academy voters grew up in, and it’s got a respected big name director in PTA. That being said, PTA and his films have frequently been Oscar nominated without seeing any wins, so either we’re going to have another Roger Deakins moment with a long awaited win, or the cycle will perpetuate once again. Personally, I feel Licorice Pizza is more likely to win than most of the films listed here, although it’s important to note, for its similarities, that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood didn’t win Best Picture in the year it was nominated.
Although Licorice Pizza does have at least one distinct advantage over it: it isn’t complete and utter shit.
Nightmare Alley
‘...circus power…’
Again, I was not expecting this film to show up here. Nightmare Alley is Guillermo del Toro's remake of a 40s film of the same name, based on a book of the same name, following the rise and fall of Bradley Cooper’s conman Stanton Carlisle. Based on the title, director and some of the production design, you could be forgiven for expecting a horror film from Nightmare Alley, but the fact we’re talking about it in an Oscars roundup pretty much proves it isn’t one. It’s really more of a noir-y thriller that just happens to have a macabre, horror-inflected aesthetic. And if those horror elements were any stronger, I can guarantee this film would not be here.
Regardless, I enjoyed Nightmare Alley. It’s a solid film, but I don't really have much to say about it. It's quite a long film, but I think the length justifies the way its plot works, in terms of the progression of time and the rise and fall of the character. And while there are two clear halves to the film, separated by a two year time jump and a distinct shift in setting and production design, both sections neatly integrate and the themes are still maintained and evolved across the transition. Plus, everything neatly circles back to where the film started, in a way that was very satisfying, if apparently super predictable, as smarter people than me have insisted.
I don't think it’ll win Best Picture, though. Handy hint, if I start one of these sections with some variation of the phrase “I'm surprised to see it here”, that's pretty much code for “it's not going to win”. It has got a lot of star power behind it, and del Toro did win Best Director for his previous film, The Shape of Water, which also managed to win Best Picture somehow. You know, that was another film infused with a horror aesthetic that wasn’t actually a horror, and did really well at the Oscars despite not being their usual cup of tea. So maybe Nightmare Alley stands a chance after all.
The Power of the Dog
‘...dog power…’
After what I presume to be a heroic Oscar campaign, Jane Campion’s new Netflix film The Power of the Dog has somehow ended up with twelve nominations in total, including Best Picture. For reference, that puts it on par with the likes of Ben-Hur, Gladiator, and Schindler’s List.
Baffling, really, as of the nominees that I’ve seen, this is by far the worst one. And it’s the worst kind of film to try and review because it’s not bad in any tangible objective sense that I can point to and explain, it just completely and utterly failed to engage me for a single minute of its runtime. I don’t know if it was the direction, or the acting, or the story, or even just the genre (I have a bad track record with Westerns) but right from the start I just could not generate any enthusiasm for this story, and frequently found myself checking the timeline to see how long was left, and groaning like Tina from Bob’s Burgers every time.
I genuinely wish I could offer more critical insight but I just found this film relentlessly dull. More power to you if you got something out of it, but for me the genuine high point of the film was getting a cheeky glance of Benedict Cumberbatch’s wang. And I’m not even gay.
Despite all of this, I can’t help but think Power of the Dog has a decent chance of winning the top prize. While by no means a guarantee, as La La Land can attest, Dog Power does have by far the most nominations this year with twelve, of which only Dune comes close with ten, and a lot of the big 10+ record breakers like Titanic and From Here to Eternity went on to win the Best Picture award for their respective years. It’s also a Western, which is a genre a lot of Academy voters are old enough to have a nostalgic affinity for, and it’s a big old period piece full of big name actors acting.
But then again, it is a Netflix exclusive. And it’s a bit shit. So you know, swings and roundabouts.
West Side Story
‘...musical power…’
And lastly, Spielberg’s West Side Story remake, which again, I’ve not seen. But instead of hearing my baseless thoughts, why don’t we outsource this section to someone who has seen it for a change. Long time friend and fan Grace, who podcast listeners will remember from all the way back in our fifth episode, went to see West Side Story, and had this to say:
Set in New York, the story follows the increasing tensions between two street gangs; the Jets and the Sharks. Similarly to Romeo and Juliet, from which the story is based, two characters from rival sides, Tony (Ansel Elgort) and Maria (Rachel Zegler), immediately fall in love, much to the disapproval of her brother Bernardo (David Alvarez). Angered by this, Bernardo is soon arranging a fight with rival gang leader Riff (Mike Faist) and it’s a race against time for Tony to try and stop it from happening.
When it comes to making film musicals, money is usually the main concern, and so there’s a tendency to cast big names rather than casting actors who will do the musical justice. They have to cast people who can dance, but a lot of the time they neglect the quality of the singing performances, and it's let other adaptations down in the past, such as Tom Hooper’s Les Misérables and Joel Schumacher’s Phantom of the Opera.
That's one reason why I liked West Side Story, because it features several first time actors, such as Rachel Zegler who makes her film debut. But despite this, I felt the singing was weak, and compared to the original film, the passion behind the vocals felt very bland.
Although not a huge fan of the songs, I will say the one stand out performer for me was Anita (Ariana DeBose). She had very strong vocals compared to some of the leading cast and you really felt her emotions. I just wanted to give her a massive hug! I can definitely see her in with a chance of winning Best Supporting Actress.
I enjoyed the choreography, and the costumes, especially for the Sharks, were very colourful and memorable. Whilst enjoyable, I didn’t come away from West Side Story thinking “Wow, this is amazing.” It was a good adaptation and there were some memorable moments, but I haven't seen many people recommending it, and I know box office-wise, it didn't pull in as many people as they’d hoped. Good film, but not good enough that I can see it winning Best Picture.
Man, I should get guests to write the blog for me more often: think how much time I’d save!
So, with all that out of the way, what're the ranked predictions looking like? I'd say something like this:
- Belfast
- Licorice Pizza
- The Power of the Dog
- CODA
- West Side Story
- Nightmare Alley
- Dune
- Drive My Car
- King Richard
- Don't Look Up
And now, the rest!
Best Animated Feature
Someone call the RAC, it’s time for a breakdown. This year, we have three Disney nominations, in Luca, Encanto, and Raya and the Last Dragon, and two non-Disney nominations in Flee and The Mitchells vs the Machines.
Flee, by the way, is doing very well: it’s got nominations for Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature, which has got to be a first. Not too shabby for a film that’s barely out. You don’t really see animated documentaries all that often; I can only really think of Waltz with Bashir, Tower and I suppose Waking Life. So you know, it's nice to see it exist and do as well as it has. However I can tell you right now it won’t win, partly because it isn’t Disney, and partly because the Academy, who almost certainly get confused by the difference between animated films and kids films, won’t vote for a more mature and depressing film over one with family appeal.
Speaking of family appeal, The Mitchells vs the Machines is also here, and might actually stand a chance. It’s the best film in the shortlist for one thing (leaving Flee aside momentarily), and considering how well-received it was, there’s probably a fair few people out there who’d agree. It’s also got the joys of filmmaking at the centre of its story, which always helps to give the Academy a little ego stroke. It’s worth noting Into the Spider-Verse, the studio’s previous work (which I’m 95% sure was made on the same software) had a similar glowing reception and wound up winning the Oscar for its year, despite its lack of Disney-ness. Although it was Marvel, to be fair. So what I’m saying is, it’s possible.
If I had to put money down, Disney would still be the safest option, and out of the three of them I’d have said Encanto was the most likely winner. Raya and the Last Dragon is just a bit pants and between Luca and Encanto, while I personally enjoyed Luca more, I think Encanto has the edge in terms of popularity and recency bias. But then Luca is a Pixar film, which have historically been the big cheeses in this category, with Walt Disney Animation Studios yet to win against one in the same year, so maybe this is a risky bet.
While Encanto has my wager, The Mitchells vs the Machines definitely has my heart, and even a glimmer of hope. If it wins, it’ll be be only the third non-Disney win in this category since 2010, and I am all here for it: let’s do some dethroning!
Best International Feature
As previously mentioned, Flee and Drive My Car have both made it on the shortlist, but do you know what isn’t here? Parallel Mothers, Pedro Almodóvar’s new film, which has had a relatively mainstream, if recent release. It's a pretty solid and interesting film and I'm surprised it didn't get a nomination.
You know what else isn't here? Titane, the winner of this year’s Palme d’Or, and probably, I would have said, the most popular and noteworthy international film of the year. Although I suppose it’s not surprising considering Titane’s horror elements and just, well, the film in general. I guess New French Extremity isn’t exactly the Academy's standard fare.
But you know what else isn’t here and absolutely could and should have been? Petite Maman; Céline Sciamma’s delightful new film about memory and mother-daughter relationships! Between this and Portrait of a Lady on Fire, I’m guessing Sciamma just does not give a shit about the Oscars, and absolutely fair play if so, because otherwise she has been robbed!
Best Production Design
I want to try something, just a fun little experiment. Let’s apply the old costume design rule to choose a prediction and see what happens.
Rule 1: If there’s a period piece, that film will win.
Well, technically they’re all period films, it’s just Dune’s period is 8000 years in the future instead of the past. I mean that is technically a period.
Rule 2: If there’s more than one period film, the oldest period will win.
So it looks like The Tragedy of Macbeth is set to be our winner. I will be checking back on this and if it turns out this rule worked, that’ll be really fucking funny.
Notable Omissions
And lastly, some quickfire notable omissions:
No Best Original Song nominations for Annette (boo), probably because Sparks are above all of this (yay)
Speaking of Sparks, no Best Documentary Feature nomination for The Sparks Brothers
No Best Animated Feature nomination for Evangelion 3.0+1.0 Thrice Upon a Time. Notable but unsurprising
No C'mon C'mon in any category, despite the fuss everyone made about it
Spencer, most surprisingly, snubbed for Best Picture. Kristen Stewart is deservingly nominated for Best Actress, but nothing else at all for the film, despite demonstrably having an Oscar campaign, so what gives?
Phew. I think that's everything. I am actually going to cover the results this year, unlike last time where I just kinda...didn't. So if you're down for that, you can join me and Andy over on the Ciné Rambles Podcast, which is finally returning for a third season, starting in April with our Oscar results show! Tell your friends!
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